NFL Week 6 Picks, Predictions, Previews for Every Game

Action Network/Getty Images Photo Jared Goff (left), Caleb Williams (center), and C. J. Stroud.

After a relatively low scoring first few weeks of the NFL regular season, scoring is finally starting to pick up across the league (for some teams). With the first head coach firing, upsets are plentiful. This season, underdogs by 5 or more points are 19-6-1 (76%) ATS.

My NFL picks for this column (11-17, 39%) have not been ideal, but I hope this analysis gets you excited every week. This week is going to be a turnaround

Now onto the Week 6 NFL predictions.

NFL Picks, Predictions | Week 6

Thursday Night Football

49ers vs. Seahawks

Thursday, October 10 Prime Video

This is arguably the most important game of the season for the Seahawks, but the schedule makers haven't been kind to them. Seattle, playing their third game in 11 days after playing Monday Night Football in Week 4, looked visibly tired in Sunday's loss to the Giants. To make matters worse, the defense has several injuries.

Uchenna Nwosu is out, and Byron Murphy, Boye Mafe and Tariq Woolen are questionable. I had high hopes for this unit under head coach Mike McDonald, but the rash of injuries to the front seven has been especially problematic, and the Seahawks rank 24th in adjusted line yards on defense. Rookie Tyrone Tracy led this defense to 129 yards on Sunday. I'm hoping for a big performance from Jordan Mason, who also struggled with yards.

The 49ers have had problems, especially in the red zone, where they rank 30th this season. San Francisco's offense has fallen to 12th in early down success rate, but that's not such a bad thing considering they led the league by a wide margin in this metric last year. Maybe a matchup against a blemished Seattle defense is just what the doctor ordered.

I'll be rooting for the Seahawks on Thursday with all futures, but I don't see much value in this game from a side or total standpoint.

Pick: Pass

NFL Week 6 Pass

Browns vs Eagles

Sunday, October 13

The Eagles are coming off a bye week and should be pretty healthy with A. J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson expected to return. Meanwhile, the Browns are 1-4. They've been in a losing spiral that's been out of control. Last week against Washington should have been a golden opportunity for this offense, but Deshaun Watson was another epic fumble.

Big Fanggio's defense should be a great opportunity to demonstrate the NFL worst offense. At the same time, the offense led by Keren Moore at the dawn of the Week is also looking forward to seeing what kind of battle will be. However, the spread of the game has been swollen to Eagles-8. 5, and it is not recommended to make a point difference here.

I want to pass the Philadelphia up t o-2. 5 and pass the key 3rd and 7th. Otherwise, this game is a pass.

Pick: Pass

Colts to Titans

Sunday, October 13

At the time of Tuesday, it is unknown who will be the quarter back of the team this week. Joe Fracco started as a substitute for the injured Anthony Richardson, and suffered unfortunate Jaguars defense. For Titans, Will Rabisi's shoulders should recover after the end of the buyweek, but the first year head coach Brian Charahan may make the second year of Passer on the bench on the bench. do not have.

What we know is that Titans's defense is much better. Colts allowed Trevor Lawrence to be a Superma n-like activity (see later), but Titans will be ranked fifth in Defense EPA, and Jeffere Simmons should return at the end of the buyweek.

If you have the defense at the dawn of the byweek, and if you become an underdog on the home, you can't help but be intrigued, but before you have a strong opinion on this match, you need to know which quarterback will start. be.

Pick: Pass

Cardinals vs Packers

Sunday, October 13

Cardinals played a stunning reversal play in the 49ERS match on Sunday, and the return of tight end and tray McBride has definitely contributed to the offense. On the other hand, Packers struggled to separate the injured Rams, and was not convinced. According to the expected analyst Nick Gaffen, Rams had a higher offense success rate, and Los Angeles was the most unfortunate result of the week.

This line is in the dead zone and does not feel the need to bet at the beginning of the week. However, it is recommended that you watch the weather forecast, as the wind may blow on the Green Bay on Sunday. If this match, especially between the two teams who want to run the ball, the weather may be too high if the weather depends on the weather.

Pick: Pass

Buccaniars vs Saints

Sunday, October 13

Sainz is missing for at least a few weeks after Derek car hurts the oblique muscles, and the center is likely to be a rookie spencer Ratler. He will be asked to play Blitz relentlessly and to play behind the broken offense line with the quick decision in a crowded pocket.

Baker Mayfield, on the other hand, ranked 5th in NFL in EPA/ play after adjustment, and has been successful in the system of the Liam Cohen new offense coordinator. Saints may be dangerous in this match because the week is short and the defense is often injured. Bucks can afford to rest and are advantageous in terms of scheme, but it is not rushing to make a single field goal in a digital game.

Pick: Pass

NFL 6th week of betting lane

Commander vs. Ravens

Sunday, October 13

Last week, I supported Browns with +3. 5 and faded out of the commander. In a more tough matc h-up, Jaden Daniels was only 56 % of the success rate of the pass, two play worthy of turnover, but he could not play so much, but downfield 10 yards or more passed four times out of nine times. Successful, 142 yards and touchdown. Overall, Washington's offense's earl y-down success rate is only 28 %, which is the worst this season.

Now, Daniels leads the u p-an d-coming command tower to Baltimore, which is a tough test for them. Washington's four victory has been brought to a total of six wins and 14 losses, one of which is ranked 12th in the lower 12th DVOA. Ravens will be third in total DVOA and will show a lot of problems to Washington's defense.

Thanks to Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, Baltimore has the most efficient Early downlashing offense in the league. Washington is 26th in Defense EPA for runs on Early Down. I expect Ravens to run the ball at will and keep Daniels away from the field, and when Jackson throws the ball, he will do so against the bottom 5 passage.

Ravens was struggling in aerial battle last week in aerial battle, and his pass defense was greatly delayed this season. Voltimore's run defense is ranked first and pass defense is 20th. If Washington's run game is neutralized, will Daniels be able to succeed away from this defense, who has only one player who creates a true difference on a wide receiver?

Washington packs a big punch in this game, and I believe Baltimore can expose its weakness here. But Jackson is just 7-18 (28%) ATS in games with field goals or better in his career. The back door may be open.

If anything, I'd like to see Baltimore in the first half. Lamar Jackson is 53-33, 2 ATS (61. 6%) in the first half of his career, the best first half ATS quarterback out of 257 quarterbacks in the last 20 years.

Pick: Lean Ravens 1 H-3. 5

Steelers vs Raiders

Sunday, October 13

The Raiders are starting to fall apart, and with each passing week it becomes more puzzling that this team beat the Ravens so early in the season. Las Vegas has Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell vying for the starting quarterback spot in practice this week.

There's no right answer on the Raiders' roster, and neither passer will boost a terrible running game and limited receiving corps without Davante Adams.

Meanwhile, the Steelers forced three turnovers last week and failed to score more than 17 points. Justin Fields completed just 55. 6% of his passes for 4. 9 yards per attempt, and George Pickens is in the doghouse after showing a lack of effort on Sunday, with his snap share at a season low. I'm looking at a cut to 59%. Pittsburgh can't afford for Pickens not to give it his all because he's the only true difference-maker on the roster offensively.

Once in this range, it's hard for the market to price the total low enough. Since November 2019, the under is 38-14-1 (73%) in games listed as 37 or less in total, including 4-2 this season. In Mike Tomlin's career, he is 85-62-1 (58%) on the road and 52-26-1 (66%) since 2015.

For now, I'll hold off to see if they get back to a 37 total, which is a significant number in this range, but this looks like an under between two poor offenses.

Pick: Lean Under 36. 5 Points

Bengals vs Giants

Sunday, October 13

Bengals are 1 They're 4-4, but don't blame the offense. Joe Burrow ranks second among qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE with 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Last week, Burrow threw for 392 yards and five touchdowns against the Ravens, but it wasn't enough for Cincinnati, who lost their fourth game by one possession. The Bengals' four losses have been by an average margin of 3. 8 points.

Giants' defense was wel l-formed last week against Gas, but he was ranked 21st in DVOA, so he was not yet convinced. Bengars can be pressure on this corner back room, which is reliable for young players, as German Chase and Tea Higgins are completely healthy. New York's Pas Rush is impressive, but this is the best offense line in recent years, and the left tackle Orlando Brown Junior has recently played a wonderful football.

Daniel Jones has played more than most expectations this season, but EPA+CPOE is still 18th. However, the return of Malik Neighbor's, which was missing last week, should be a great help. In this match, one point will be whether Lou Analmo will take a heavy approach of Blitz like last week.

This year's Bengals was struggling with Pas Rush, so analumo put Blitz last week in 51. 1 % of Lamar Jackson's dro p-back. Jones has achieved a reasonable performance this year, but last year, the PFF scored 42th out of 42 against Blitz, and the play rate worthy of turnover was the second largest in the same sample. 。 If someone makes a fatal mistake in this quarterback, it must be Jones.

Daniel Jones has the lowest win rate among the quarte r-backs, which have been more than five games since 2003, according to Evan Abrams, one win and 14 losses in Golden Time in a Golden Time match. Bengals ranked 30th in Nick Gaffen's fortune ranking. It is a look at whether or not a 3 cinnati ha s-3, but in this winning game, it tilts to Bengalz.

Pick: Bag to Bengals-3. 5.

NFL 6th week pick

Jaguars vs Bears

Sunday, October 13

Jaguars finally won Colts, which has been dominated in recent years, but I don't intend to buy Jacksonville stocks in a hurry. Coltz put pressure on Trevor Lawrence only once during the match, and the pressure rate during the game has ended at a minimum since the pressure tracking began in 2013. Lawrence will not be as comfortable on Sunday on Sunday, which is ranked second in the pas rush winning rate of this season.

Chicago's defense is generally excellent, and the EPA for the path leads NFL. Lawrence was ranked 34th out of 35 quarterbacks in the first four weeks before the second place last week. Given the more difficult matchups, I would like to expect a performance that reflects the first month this week.

Meanwhile, Caleb Williams is in good shape every week and finally succeeded in deepball on Sunday. Until the first four weeks, the pass of 20 yards or more was made three times out of 22 times, and the intercept was three times. On Sunday, he succeeded in three out of four out of four times, recorded 89 yards and two touchdowns. I haven't trusted Shane Waldron for a long time, but it was useful that Kinan Allen has returned to the battlefield, and the offense is on the rise.

Jackson Building was ranked at the bottom of the pass defense EPA and could not push the front. The passage win rate is 30th, and the Blitz rate in the last two weeks is only 6 %. If Jaguars uses Blitz a lot this week, Williams should succeed. He has recorded 17-19 passes, 200 yards, and two touchdowns in the past two weeks without playing turnover.

Bears's defense is much better in the game, and it may be only a few weeks that Williams will be recognized as a quarter back than Lawrence. In any case, the Facialit has succeeded in the international game, 35 wins, 10 losses, 1 minute, 31 wins and 15 losses (67 %) for SU. I support Bears on money line.

Nomination: Bet Bears ML

Texan's vs. Patriotts

Sunday, October 13

The fact that Texans won the Bills at home on Sunday could affect AFC's ti e-break, but Houston's offense is not yet convinced. EPA/ Play and Early Down Success rate are 31st, higher than the Cleveland Offense. Even worse, superstar Nico Collins is in IR.

C. J. Stroud has an average of 7. 8 yards per pass, but falls to 6. 2 yards when targeted other than Collins. Tank Dell does not look like a complete health, and Stepon Digs is a little limited as a lo w-ADOT player who cannot exert explosive power like Collins. The number of straws has dropped on the road through a short career, with 8. 7YPA at home, 5. 4 % touchdown rate, which dropped to 7. 3 YPA and 3. 2 % touchdown.

This week, New England will start rookie Drake May. This may be the best way to use him behind the Pass block winning league's offense line against intense Texands Pass Rush. However, according to ESPN research, Mei is used to playing under pressure.

At least, May's mobility should give offers a different wrinkle, and terrible pass catchers should be a little better. This week, Kendrick Bourne should have more turns, and rookie Jarin Pork has begun to emerge as a player who creates a difference. This week, Patriots can develop new play calls on mobility rookies.

The straw has been sluggish with 4 wins and 9 losses in a short career, with two or more than two or more than 2 wins and 7 losses since last year's draft. Texan's is inefficient in early down and has many conservative play calls, so it will be difficult to make a point in this match.

According to the expected analyst Nick Gaffen, Patriotz is the most famous lucky ranking side of this week's bulletin board, and supports Maydog, which I believe, as a home dog that catches touchdown in this spot. do.

Pick: Patriotz +7

Chargers vs bronkos

Sunday, October 13

Former Oregon's Quarterback, Justin Herbert and Bo Nicks, will confront the first Division Matchup. There is also a director's confrontation between Jim Harbor and Sean Paiton. Harv o-led 49ers was 3 wins and 1 loss with Paton, from 2011 to 2014.

These accompanying elements are exciting, but Onfield may not raise fireworks. This season's charger wants to grind the game, with the lowest seconds per play and third in the first half of the game. Bronkos, on the other hand, is 31st in the offense success rate in the first half of the early down, and the chargers are the number one defense.

Denver's defense has recently relyed on Cover 0 and Cover 1 more than any of the league schemes, with Bance Joseph's frequent use of Blitz. It is extremely difficult to find a conservative charger receiver that can be confidentially separated by Patrick Satin II and Lily Moss in the Breakout Corner.

For the past four years, under Bronkos's home game, Under the Under 17 wins and 11 losses, 48 ​​wins 30 losses and 1 minute (62 %) since 2015. All games under all games make sense, but I'm limited to the first half. The Charger's match was 3 wins and 1 loss in the first half of the 17. 5-point line, and the only hit was unfortunate Panthers. The two quarters in the early stages are expected to be unable to get rid of both teams.

Pick: Bet to 1h under 17. 5 points

Lions vs Cowboys

Sunday, October 13

This game is one of the biggest trench mismatches you'll see at the NFL level. Detroit is 1st in adjusted offensive line yards and Dallas is 31st in defense. The Lions are 3rd in early down rushing success rate and the Cowboys are 29th in defense.

Detroit can chew up yards on 1st and 2nd downs, setting up manageable third down situations for Jared Goff against a pass rush that's lost some of its juice with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence out.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys' run game has been mired in the mud for most of the season. They rank 31st in early down rushing success rate. I'd like to give Rico Dowdle a step up last week, but I'm not going to give him a second 2nd in adjusted line yards. They'll hit a brick wall on Sunday against a Detroit defensive line ranked 1st in the NFC East.

Dallas lacks a difference-maker on offense outside of CeeDee Lamb, and the defense is doing everything they can to take him out of the game without being too afraid to get taken down by other receivers. He had just four catches all season for 25 yards after halftime.

Aidan Hutchinson will also play a big role in this one, facing a Dallas pass-blocking unit ranked 26th by PFF. Hutchinson, a front-runner for Defensive Player of the Year, has 40 pressures in just four games.

Jared Goff is 38-18 ATS (68%) in career indoor games and 19-11-2 (63%) on extended rest. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott is 2-7 ATS in his last nine games against teams outside the NFC East. The Lions are 19-33 (36%) in SU games against teams over . 500, and 32-14-2 ATS against teams below . 500. According to Director of Research Evan Abrams, this 19-33 ATS record is 263rd out of 266 quarterbacks since 2003.

The Lions almost pulled off a comeback win against the Cowboys on the road last season, but this time the matchup is much more favorable. I'd like to root for Detroit as the favorite after the bye week.

Pick: Bet Lion s-3

Falcons vs Panthers

Sunday, October 13

The Atlanta Falcons are an undeniably entertaining team this season, but they've been trailing by abysmal margins late in games recently. They've won three straight games this season by a combined margin of nine points, but they probably could and should have lost all of them:

• 2nd week: Eagles wins from 97. 6 % to the remaining 2 minutes and 2 minutes of drive.
• The 5 8-yard field goal, which decided to compete in the remaining 41 seconds, from 84. 5 % of the third week Saints.
• Week 5: The victory in the extra game was after Buccaniars recorded a 93 % win rate in 22 seconds.

This week's Panthers will have a high offense success rate. Andy Dalton struggled to move the ball outdoors with the Bears Paths Defense in DVOA. If you are 22nd Falcons, you should be more successful.

Chuba Havad will also succeed on the ground as one of the most underestimated running backs in the league this season. Carolina is second in the O-line adjustment yard, fifth in the lashing success rate in early down, and Falcons is 31st in the defense of the run in early down.

Unfortunately, Panthers lacks Taylor Morton and Austin Kobet with two offense lines. However, Falcons' Pass Rush rarely exists this season, pases rush win rate 28th, and pressure rate is 31st. Dalton should have plenty of time to enter your pocket.

In any case, Kirk Kazunds has struggled to challenge success through his career. According to Evan Abrams, ATS after straigh t-up in his career is 31 wins 43 losses and 2 minutes (42 %), the second worst of 244 quarterbacks since 2003. Support the ugly divigition dog near the touchdown, which should be an exciting game with a high score.

Pick: Bet Panthers +6. 5

Bills vs Jets

October 14th (Monday

Josh Allen against Aaron Rogers in Golden Time. This is all. Except for the fact that the offense success rate in the last two weeks is 30th and 31st. The Bills struggled with Early down, and Alen is sel f-sufficient with 3rd down. He succeeded in nine out of 30 times in the Sunday match against Texans.

New York's defense does not have a pas rush like last year, but is still NFL in the PFF coverage. Jets is forced to set the opponent under a slow and straightforward drive, but he is not confident that the Bills without a hig h-quality pass catcher will accomplish it.

On the other hand, Nasaniel Hacket's play call is getting worse this season, and Rogers is 31st out of the 35 quarterbacks in one trial yard. But Garrett Wilson finally broke last week! You have achieved the first 100 yard games of the season! What I needed was 22 targets.

By the way, according to Evan Abrams, Hacket's team has been under 97 wins 78 losses (55 %) since he became an NFL offense coordinator in 2013. In the confrontation between Hacket and Bills' defensive magician Sean McCdder Mot, I know who I'm on every time.

The team has played 10 times since 2019, of which 8 games were less than 41 points, average 35. 8 points per game. The Golden Time Divisional Games betting on the recent history of two upset offers, coaching, which does not allow big play and talented defense.

Pick: Bet to Under 41 points and bet on Jets +8. 5 with a teaser.

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