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Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System that Beat the Casinos and Wall Street

In 1956, two scientists at Bell Labs discovered the scientific get-rich-quick formula. One was mathematician Claude Shannon, the father of the digital age and a genius on a par with Einstein. The other was Texas-born, gun-toting physicist John L. Kelly, Jr. Together, they applied the science of information theory, the basis of computers and the Internet, to the problem of making as much money as possible, as quickly as possible.

Shannon and MIT mathematician Edward O. Scope took the Kelly Formula to Las Vegas. It worked. They realized there was even more to be made in the stock market. Thorpe used the Kelly System in his phenomenally successful hedge fund, Princeton Newport Partners. Shannon also became a successful investor, outperforming Warren Buffett's returns. Fortune's Formula traces how the Kelly System created controversy while also creating fortunes at race tracks, casinos and trading desks, and reveals the dark side of this glamorous scheme that exploited the insider advantage.

Shannon believed that wise investors could defeat the market. 386 pages, paperback 386 pages, paperback

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About the author

William Poundstone

49 books 341 are followed William Poundstone is the author of more than 10 no n-fiction, among which the "Fortune's Formula" was selected by Amazon editor in the 2005 No n-fiction. Contributed to the New York Times, Psychology Today, Esquire, Harper, Economist, and Harvard Business Review. Appeared on hundreds of radio programs around the world, including TODAY SHOW and David Letterman Show. Poundstone is studying physics at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and many of his ideas are related to social and economic impacts on scientific ideas. His books are selling more than 500, 000 copies around the world. Evaluation and review

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1, 383 Review 23. 3k Followers

This is a very interesting book, beautifully and simply explaining complex mathematical and economic ideas. This is a story related to yakuza, mathematician, information theory founder, yakuza, politicians, and police (even rotten ones).

In this book, gamblers generally count cards, find roulette whose balance is slightly disrupted, and find stocks that are considered to be inexpensive or expensive. Then, put a bet on how reliable you can win, and to assume everything. In other words, if you bet on horse racing, you will bet all the horses in the race according to the results of each horse.

And this is the problem. You need a lot of "edges" to make money, as they distribute the bet money. In general, it is either a house or a stock broker that has an edge in a bet. Regardless of the winning or losing of horses and stocks, they take before the division.

The book discusses the people who have succeeded in betting on stock markets and horse racing. All are interesting. As one says, he finds a perfect way to "become rich and rich."

So why don't I pull out a lot of money from a bank account or borrow a lot of leverage for stock investment and blackjack investment? This is because there are other factors that are as convincing as this book, where the Fortune Formula (also known as Kelly's formula) does not actually work. For example, let's say that there is evidence that someone has won the market 5 % for 20 years (people discussed in this book have gained any more results). I want to think so. But is that so? The problem is a kind of choice bias. As soon as one fails, you can see that the person's theory does not go well, but how long does it take to know that a person's theory never fails? This has a universal law. Any investment strategy always fails the moment I invest. The service to my world is not to invest.

In addition to the inconvenience of having to spend hours and hours for studying something like a stock market or betting ticket, I was away from this formula, "Before doubling money. The probability of half is 1/3. " I'm not a gambler. Like almost everyone in the world, I hate to lose, but unlike many people, I can't even find a joy in a little flounder.

From J. Edgar Huver to Paul Newman, this book has a cameo appearance. He liked gangs complaining that he had to increase the number of horse racing to acquire Hoober. The depiction of the American casino in the 1950s was a persuasive and terrible, especially boldness of actually trying to win. The movie "Godfather" is similar. < SPAN> This book discusses the people who have succeeded in betting on stock markets and horse racing. All are interesting. As one says, he finds a perfect way to "become rich and rich."

So why don't I pull out a lot of money from a bank account or borrow a lot of leverage for stock investment and blackjack investment? This is because there are other factors that are as convincing as this book, where the Fortune Formula (also known as Kelly's formula) does not actually work. For example, let's say that there is evidence that someone has won the market 5 % for 20 years (people discussed in this book have gained any more results). I want to think so. But is that so? The problem is a kind of choice bias. As soon as one fails, you can see that the person's theory does not go well, but how long does it take to know that a person's theory never fails? This has a universal law. Any investment strategy always fails the moment I invest. The service to my world is not to invest.

In addition to the inconvenience of having to spend hours and hours for studying something like a stock market or betting ticket, I was away from this formula, "Before doubling money. The probability of half is 1/3. " I'm not a gambler. Like almost everyone in the world, I hate to lose, but unlike many people, I can't even find a joy in a little flounder.

From J. Edgar Huver to Paul Newman, this book has a cameo appearance. He liked gangs complaining that he had to increase the number of horse racing to acquire Hoober. The depiction of the American casino in the 1950s was a persuasive and terrible, especially boldness of actually trying to win. The movie "Godfather" is similar. The book discusses the people who have succeeded in betting on stock markets and horse racing. All are interesting. As one says, he finds a perfect way to "become rich and rich."

So why don't I pull out a lot of money from a bank account or borrow a lot of leverage for stock investment and blackjack investment? This is because there are other factors that are as convincing as this book, where the Fortune Formula (also known as Kelly's formula) does not actually work. For example, let's say that there is evidence that someone has won the market 5 % for 20 years (people discussed in this book have gained any more results). I want to think so. But is that so? The problem is a kind of choice bias. As soon as one fails, you can see that the person's theory does not go well, but how long does it take to know that a person's theory never fails? This has a universal law. Any investment strategy always fails the moment I invest. The service to my world is not to invest.

In addition to the inconvenience of having to spend hours and hours for studying something like a stock market or betting ticket, I was away from this formula, "Before doubling money. The probability of half is 1/3. " I'm not a gambler. Like almost everyone in the world, I hate to lose, but unlike many people, I can't even find a joy in a little flounder.

From J. Edgar Huver to Paul Newman, this book has a cameo appearance. He liked gangs complaining that he had to increase the number of horse racing to acquire Hoober. The depiction of the American casino in the 1950s was a persuasive and terrible, especially boldness of actually trying to win. The movie "Godfather" is similar.

But the most interesting thing was something I had no idea about: Did you know that in 2001, HAL's brain is slowly shut down and he is transported back to his childhood? (If you don't know, stop reading this review right now and go rent the movie. What I didn't know is that this is the first song ever sung by a computer. And the idea of ​​getting a computer to sing is really interesting too. If you have a computer say sentences like this, if it's not clear what you're saying, the listener won't understand anything. But it's like listening to someone with an unfamiliar accent: at first you don't understand a word, but it gets better as you listen. The person programming the voice is so used to it that they can understand what it's saying, whereas someone probably wouldn't when they first hear a computer voice. The programmers got around this by having the computer sing a popular song.

Sorry, I have to stop now, but I have to say this: Have people sit across from each other, give one of them a pencil, and have them tap out a song they know. Then ask the person tapping if they think the listener can guess the song. With a full orchestra and 4 That's because the vocal harmonies are playing in your head. People generally get upset when listeners can't guess the song, especially when it's a seemingly completely random song. We did this in class this year and it was really fun. We asked kids to tap the Australian national anthem and someone guessed Happy Birthday.

So if you're going to make a bet, you need to expect the impossible. Math-wise, 20 Sigma events happen all the time. You'd better be prepared for them. Good luck.

345 Reviews 250 Following

This book is the best book I've been reading for a long time, and is the best book to read after James Grick Information.

The title and subtitle are quite exaggerated, and I'm not sure what this book is. "Fortune's Formula" mentioned in the title is quite interesting.

I didn't know that there was an optimal betting, but I found out that the overbet was worse than underbet. If you sit down and think intuitively, it's cool to be mathematically proven.

In any case, this Kelly Bet is a thread that penetrates a wide and attractive story (very gentle) in this book.

It starts with the information theory and my hero Claude Shannon, but soon settles on an interesting genius, Ed Scope. In fact, he invented the card counting, analyzed blackjack using the early IBM main frame, and proved that using card counting could make the game odds in favor of a player instead of a house.

He wrote a research paper on this and toned the title to increase the possibility of being published. And I rewrote it into a book called "Beat the Dealer".

This book has many interesting side stories. For example, a man with a scoop and a mafia connected to Nevada to test his system, trying to create a device for him and Claude Shannon to win in roulette, or parking (this is also a parking lot (this is also). It is the background of the mafia connection).

Later, this book became more interesting than any book about mathematics or science I read. It is linked to information theory and finance, but I never thought of it, despite the time I spent a lot of time about both.

When the efficient market hypothesis had influenced the field of finance, the soup knew that the mathematics was very similar to the information theory. At least from a mathematical perspective, random walks were not much different from the compressed signals in the noise. In fact, Sapu was able to calculate the official Black Shalles Marton's official (by the way, this led to the Nobel Prize) for optional price decisions long before their papers were published.

Soap had already operated a hedge fund and had a surprising return. He may have benefited from the efficient market hypothesis, but there was no problem in finding the inefficiency of the market with early computers and small staff.

(Mr. Soap and his partner transformed the financial industry while working on a separate coast, if they were more careful about the choice of brokers, they would probably have been praised like today's Buffett and Mangers). 。

Michael Milken brokered his fund trading, which led to an interesting advisory. Ivan Bosky and Rudy Guliani were immediately dragged into this story. And the story of LTCM, which is interesting no matter how many times you read, is again spoken with the lesson that Kelly standard is incompatible with leverage.

The interesting thing about this book is that for the Ego Hoods, like the Bell Institute and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), horse racing, card games, roulette, and stock markets are almost the same. They are just a coincidence, and the rules can be bent by appropriate insight and equation. Compared to what has happened in the financial world in the past 10 years, it seems like a harmless pleasure.

A bit disappointing is when Claude Shannon's investment portfolio is revealed. He is a wise man, lives modestly, chosen some wise brands, never sells, and has a great success in one of them, but cannot be called an investor who defeated Wall Street. "The billionaire next door" has a lot of such stories of ordinary people. Reading out his assets printed out on an old computer made me feel a little grotesque.

I have read Poundstone for a long time. I read his "big secrets" and "bigger secrets" a long time ago (I borrowed and read in a library a few years ago, but more interesting as a strange relic before the Internet). I have also read an excellent book on game theory called "Prisoner's Dilemma". The book still affects my decisio n-making method. I'm going to read his other books.

4 books 754 people follow

"Fortune's Formula" begins in the 1950s when two scientists at the Bell Institute have found a formula. The Bell Research Institute's scientists discovered it, not a normal formula, but a way to be rich.

Getting rich may not be your goal in life, but all else being equal, it's not a bad idea. As comedian Bill Hicks put it, "Money can't buy you happiness, but it can buy you a jet ski. You never see an unhappy person riding a jet ski."

In any case, one of those scientists is Claude Shannon, the inventor of information theory, and the other is John Kelly, for whom the Kelly Criterion (the aforementioned "get rich quick" formula) is named.

The Kelly Criterion optimizes long-term wealth (technically called logarithmic wealth), not expected wealth. This seems a bit pedantic, but it's actually really important.

The general idea of ​​the Kelly Criterion is that you bet more or less depending on how much "excess information" or "edge" you have. If you know about the probability of a pharmaceutical company releasing a new drug, that corresponds to the potential excess return. The bigger your edge, the more aggressively you should bet.

Also, if you're optimizing for long-term wealth, one of the key things is not to go bankrupt. The Kelly Criterion says that the bigger your edge, the more you should bet, but never bet everything. This has the wonderful property of making it impossible to go bust.

"Bet more when you have more edge and won't go bust" seems like a pretty obvious thing to do, but surprisingly few investors actually do it.

Here's an example. Suppose you're offered a rigged coin flip game that you know has a 55% chance of landing heads.

Fun, right?

Obviously, you should bet heads. But how much should you bet? If you bet everything and are unlucky, you might lose it all on the first game.

Betting less might keep you from going bust, but the compounding effect of wealth will be slower.

The Kelly stake for consecutive bets on one coin is 10% of your total bankroll. If you want to calculate why 10%, you can read a book, but mathematically this bet size will maximize your long-term wealth.

It takes into account the possibility of having an "unlucky" winning streak, but also maximizes the chances of increasing your total wealth over time. By always betting 10%, if you lose, you bet less, and if you win, you bet more.

If you start with $100 and lose $10, bet 10% of the remaining $90, or $9. If you continue to lose, continue to lower the absolute value of your bet until your unlucky streak turns around. This is the best system for long-term wealth.

The difficulty of sticking to such a system in the real world is that you can't know exactly odds. Coin flip is a trivial example of a probability, but the real market is not so transparent. As a result, there is a high possibility that the game will stop at the worst time after bad luck continues.

This very advantageous coin flip game can also lose consecutive losses. When you lose five times in a row, how do you know that the game was fundamentally changing, but just bad?

Diversification and being able to bet at the same time help. What if you could turn 100 coins at the same time instead of turning over coins one after another? In this scenario, you will bet on each flip almost 1%($ 100, $ 0. 95/ flip in an example of $ 100).

This will greatly reduce the variation in returns, creating a smooth curve of exponential growth. With a large number of laws, you will win nearly 55 % of the toss, so you can make more money. This is much better and easier to continue.

From an investment portfolio's point of view, this means that everything has a positive expected value (a game that wins with a 55 % probability and bets on the head) and finds various investments that go well at different times. do.

By combining independent or ant i-correlation assets, you can achieve higher returns with lower drawdowns. This is what the dragon portfolio introduced earlier is trying.

Classic stocks/ bonds 60/40 portfolio depends greatly on the assumptions based on a onc e-year bulleting price of stocks and bonds from 1984 to 2020.

In the period when interest rates are close to zero (USA, Japan in the 1930s, Japan after 1990, and today Europe), there is little room for lowering interest rates (that is, raising bond prices), so a portfolio built around stocks and bonds. Is struggling.

Bonds are forced to struggle when inflation rates are rising rapidly (USA in the 1970s). At such times, there is almost no real return of bonds. Influity currencies with an annual rate of 10 %, the real return of a 10 % annual bond is zero. Even worse, bonds are correlated with risk assets such as stocks and real estate, and they may fall at the same time. As a result, the performance may be sluggish, even if it is not a major loss, and the investment strategy may be abandoned at the worst time.

Kelly Criterion suggests combining stocks and bonds with less correlated assets that perform well in such scenarios, such as gold, cash, commodity trends, long volatility, and (maybe) Bitcoin. This combination is, at least in theory, similar to making multiple bets at the same time. Since something in the portfolio should always be doing well, the overall value of the portfolio should grow in a (relatively) smoother manner than a less diversified portfolio. The book follows Kelly Criterion's path, first to Las Vegas and eventually to the stock market (which turns out to be a much more profitable place to use a good betting strategy and where you're much less likely to break your knees).

The book has a narrative flow and is easy to follow, but it does go into great detail on how the formula works and how it has been applied as a tool for both gambling and investing.

If you really want to get into the math world, chapter 6 of Ewan Sinclair's Volatility Trading goes into more detail.

138 reviews 21 followers

A sad and naive book.

A very interesting subject, but the author ruins it with a long list of trivial and irrelevant details. A bunch of seemingly irrelevant facts about the Mafia, Claude Shannon's marriage, LTCM, Paul Samuelson's biography, etc. are forcibly mixed together. Many chapters pass without any connection to the Kelly Criterion itself.

For Edward Thorpe, read his biography "A Man For All Markets." For Claude Shannon, read "A Mind At Play." For a better book on applying the Kelly Criterion to investing, read "Concentrated Investing." For the geeky math behind the Kelly Criterion, read the academic papers and Wikipedia pages.

140 reviews 102 followers

A great read, though difficult to implement.

856 Reviews 55 Followers

Is it possible to profit from this book without understanding a single thing? Yes, you can. Anyone unfamiliar with gambling, stock trading, sports betting, and other fields that seem like pure chaos and where any returns are pure luck will quickly become lost in the terminology and phrasing. This book should be read like Algebra 101.