"The first US election where Bitcoin and crypto-responsiveness will determine the outcome" - Lynn Alden Exclusive Interview

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Lynn Alden is a macroeconomist, engineer, founder of the Lynn Alden Investment Strategy and author of Broken Money: Why our financial system is failing and how we can improve it.

While her reputation as a macro rockstar and Bitcoin supporter precedes her, many will be surprised to learn that her advocacy comes from a deeply moral position of economic freedom.

Her work has been featured in publications such as the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal, and she regularly appears on CNBC and Fox business shows as a trusted analyst. Her appearance on the Bitcoin podcast "Blockworks Macro" has racked up hundreds of thousands of views, so be sure to check it out.

We asked Lynn a variety of questions, from the Fed's aggressive rate cuts to the impact of crypto on the US elections to the life cycle of macro crypto. She was kind enough to answer them all.

In this guide, we'll cover the key points of why we think that "... Fiscal sovereignty can bring periods of mild or even significant stagnation.

In the space of six years, you went from Finance & Stamps to Technical Lead for the FAA? From Technical Lead to Full-Time Stock & Market Researcher and now a True Macro and Crypto Rockstar. How does it feel?

I'm an introvert by nature, so I never expected my audience to be so large. I started the business as a long-term, passionate side hustle, but it grew to such a large business that I had to let go of other roles. But I'm very grateful to the people who enjoyed the work, and it certainly led to a lot of fun.

If there is a drawback, it will be an ironically and lonely job. My previous job was very personal, but most of my current jobs are remote. As a result, my personal brand has reached more people, but the number of personal connections has decreased. However, this is a more broad problem with remote work in general.

However, in recent X posts, you ask readers what kind of expression is the most worrisome of books, movies, and programs. What do you change to "fix" them? How do you answer?

sauce

I'm still worried about Mary Sue characters. Hollywood and creators generally seem to be difficult to regulate. On the other hand, it may be dumb unless you are a popular movie series, program, and books with strong books, but on the other hand, creators are thinking too much and there are too many "female protagonists" and it is not interesting. Sometimes.

I think the first season of the Alkan series was quite successful. In addition to many wonderful male characters, there was a deep, interesting and wel l-balanced female hero. I don't know how Season 2 will hold up, but you'll know soon.

Blue I Samurai also handled it well. She really has the skills through the show and struggles in the process.

➡ Is the fall rate of 50bps supporting your teres that the broadcasting station is slowly driving the US economy to stop?

Not so. Inflation rates are gradually declining, but interest rates are stopped, so if there is no reduction in Fed, interest rates will gradually increase over time (that is, real interest rates are real interest rates. It gets high).

However, the time when finances are dominant can lead to calm or significant stagnation. The rise in the unemployment rate while the inflation rate is still "adhesive" has some directions, not a complete stagnation (meaning a real GDP fall).

It may be said that some people (for example, Jeffrey Snider) incorporated the SOFR contract with a fall of 50bps (there is still debate whether the market was expected to be 25bps or 50bps). Is there another step reduction?

I had no strong opinion on any questions of 25bps and 50bps. There are times when the market actually exceeds or falls down on how many times the rate will be reduced in the next few months. This time it was a long time in FOMC, and I was almost uncertain how many times the market would be.

My bases within the year have two more 25bps interest rate, but may vary depending on future data.

In a September newsletter, the United States said that it was on the verge of retreating in 2020, but showed unexpected resilience. Please give further arguing about the factors, but is there any other factor called inflation? Many research*has the impact of US inflation exports in the world economy, especially emerging markets. Do you think inflation exports in the United States have increased during or after the show? Also, how much did you contribute to this recession to this recession? "-Nords by Laura Pose

In 2022, the United States was in danger of recession, but showed an unexpected resilience.

I think that the US inflation was exported to the global economy, but I believe that most of the inflation is due to budget deficit. There was no sustainable rise in bank lending interest rates like the 1970s. Instead, combined with a temporary supply chain bottle neck, the amount of money that exceeds normal interest rates has increased constantly.

Source BEA GDP 2017-2020 Data

"I think encryptio n-related laws are particularly affected by election results."

➡ The recent decision by the US financial regulation authorities (Fedic, & amp; amp; OCC) can be interpreted as "ant i-cryptographic".

I think they are mostly ant i-encryption. They generally support the existing capital market and bank structure, clearly anticipate, and agree to control money.

Some interests are in conflict in the US government. For example, some consider stable coins to be useful to absorb many government debt issues. Therefore, there are many politicians and government officials who favor this industry. However, the financial regulation side generally opposes.

I had no strong opinions on any questions of the US's first cryptographic election < Span> for any 25bps and 50bps questions. There are times when the market actually exceeds or falls down on how many times the rate will be reduced in the next few months. This time it was a long time in FOMC, and I was almost uncertain how many times the market would be.

My bases within the year have two more 25bps interest rate, but may vary depending on future data.

In a September newsletter, the United States said that it was on the verge of retreating in 2020, but showed unexpected resilience. Please give further arguing about the factors, but is there any other factor called inflation? Many research*has the impact of US inflation exports in the world economy, especially emerging markets. Do you think inflation exports in the United States have increased during or after the show? Also, how much did you contribute to this recession to this recession? "-Nords by Laura Pose

In 2022, the United States was in danger of recession, but showed an unexpected resilience.

I think that the US inflation was exported to the global economy, but I believe that most of the inflation is due to budget deficit. There was no sustainable rise in bank lending interest rates like the 1970s. Instead, combined with a temporary supply chain bottle neck, the amount of money that exceeds normal interest rates has increased constantly.

Source BEA GDP 2017-2020 Data

"I think encryptio n-related laws are particularly affected by election results."

➡ The recent decision by the US financial regulation authorities (Fedic, & amp; amp; OCC) can be interpreted as "ant i-cryptographic".

I think they are mostly ant i-encryption. They generally support the existing capital market and bank structure, clearly anticipate, and agree to control money.

Some interests are in conflict in the US government. For example, some consider stable coins to be useful to absorb many government debt issues. Therefore, there are many politicians and government officials who favor this industry. However, the financial regulation side generally opposes.

The first US cryptographic election I had no strong opinion on any questions of 25bps and 50bps. There are times when the market actually exceeds or falls down on how many times the rate will be reduced in the next few months. This time it was a long time in FOMC, and I was almost uncertain how many times the market would be.

My bases within the year have two more 25bps interest rate, but may vary depending on future data.

In a September newsletter, the United States said that it was on the verge of retreating in 2020, but showed unexpected resilience. Please give further arguing about the factors, but is there any other factor called inflation? Many research*has the impact of US inflation exports in the world economy, especially emerging markets. Do you think inflation exports in the United States have increased during or after the show? Also, how much did you contribute to this recession to this recession? "-Nords by Laura Pose

In 2022, the United States was in danger of recession, but showed an unexpected resilience.

I think that the US inflation was exported to the global economy, but I believe that most of the inflation is due to budget deficit. There was no sustainable rise in bank lending interest rates like the 1970s. Instead, combined with a temporary supply chain bottle neck, the amount of money that exceeds normal interest rates has increased constantly.

Source BEA GDP 2017-2020 Data

"I think encryptio n-related laws are particularly affected by election results."

➡ The recent decision by the US financial regulation authorities (Fedic, & amp; amp; OCC) can be interpreted as "ant i-cryptographic".

I think they are mostly ant i-encryption. They generally support the existing capital market and bank structure, clearly anticipate, and agree to control money.

Some interests are in conflict in the US government. For example, some consider stable coins to be useful to absorb many government debt issues. Therefore, there are many politicians and government officials who favor this industry. However, the financial regulation side generally opposes.

The first cryptographic election in the United States

The US Republican and Democratic parties seem more polarized than ever (except in the biggest spending areas). Each party's stance on cryptocurrency is in the spotlight. How important do you think cryptocurrency is to the outcome of the election and the fate of digital assets in the US? - Question from Alpha

I think this is the first US election where politicians' stances on bitcoin and crypto have a significant impact on the election outcome. The amount of lobbying by the industry is large, which is beneficial for those who support it. There are few votes or money to be gained by not explicitly supporting it, but many votes and money to be gained by supporting it.

Regardless of the election outcome, I don't expect to see particularly good privacy laws in the next four years. However, I do think that crypto laws will be particularly affected by the election outcome.

➡् Is there a way for the US to eliminate its huge budget deficit without causing significant pain to domestic and international markets? If not, the monetary policy target of 2% inflation may be an inherently flawed assumption, at least in terms of value creation for ordinary people who cannot rely on capital.

My take is not, that's where the "nothing can stop this train" meme comes from.

So a 2% inflation target is going to be hard to maintain.

Walter White has provided fodder for memes for generations.

➡️ M2 money supply growth seems to correlate closely with stock market capitalization, do you think the two are directly correlated? If so, should that affect how we define and perceive value in economic terms?

There's no direct correlation, but it's pretty correlated. The broad money supply basically represents the denominator by which we measure everything, so periods when the money supply rises faster than normal tend to also lead to higher prices for other things.

Is it possible that we'll see growing social unrest as a result of the rapid rise in inequality, both in the West and in the developing world?

I think that in the West, social unrest will remain elevated and may even rise unless structural changes occur.

The Republican and Democratic parties in the US appear to be more polarized than ever (except in the largest spending areas). Each party's stance on crypto is in the spotlight. How important do you think crypto is to the outcome of the election and the fate of digital assets in the US? - Question from Arpa

I think this is the first US election where politicians' stances on bitcoin and crypto have a non-trivial effect on the election outcome. The amount of lobbying by the industry is large, which is beneficial for those who support it. There are few votes or money to be gained by not explicitly supporting it, but many votes and money to be gained by supporting it.

Regardless of the election outcome, I don't expect to see particularly good privacy laws in the next four years. However, I do think that crypto laws will be particularly affected by the outcome of the election.

➡् Is there a way for the US to eliminate its huge budget deficit without causing a lot of pain to domestic and international markets? If not, then maybe the 2% inflation target for monetary policy is an inherently flawed assumption, at least in terms of value creation for ordinary people who cannot rely on capital.

My view is not that it is, and that's where the "nothing can stop this train" meme comes from.

So it's going to be hard to maintain a 2% inflation target.

Walter White has provided fodder for memes for generations.

➡️ M2 money supply growth seems to correlate closely with stock market capitalization, do you think the two are directly correlated? If so, should that affect how we define and perceive value in economic terms?

There is no direct correlation, but it is quite correlated. The broad money supply essentially represents the denominator by which we measure everything, so periods when the money supply rises faster than normal tend to also lead to higher prices for other things.

Is it possible that we will see growing social unrest as a result of the rapid rise in inequality, both in the West and in the developing world?

In the West, I think social unrest will remain elevated and may even increase unless structural changes occur. The Republican and Democratic parties in the US seem more polarized than ever (except in the largest spending areas). Each party's stance on cryptocurrency has been a focus of attention. How important do you think cryptocurrency is to the outcome of the election and the fate of digital assets in the US? - Question from Arpa

I think this is the first US election where politicians' stances on bitcoin and crypto have a more than a small impact on the election outcome. The amount of lobbying by the industry is huge and beneficial to those who support it. There are few votes or money to be gained by explicitly not supporting it, but many to be gained by supporting it.

Regardless of the election outcome, I don't expect to see particularly good privacy laws in the next four years. I do think crypto laws will be particularly affected by the election outcome, though.

➡् Is there a way for the US to eliminate its huge budget deficit without causing significant pain to domestic and international markets? If not, then maybe a monetary policy target of 2% inflation is an inherently flawed assumption, at least in terms of value creation for ordinary people who cannot rely on capital.

My view is not that, and that's where the "nothing can stop this train" meme comes from.

So a 2% inflation target will be hard to maintain.

Walter White has provided fodder for memes for generations.

➡️ M2 money supply growth seems to correlate closely with stock market capitalization, do you think the two are directly correlated? If so, should that affect how we define and perceive value in economic terms?

There's not a direct correlation, but it's pretty close. The broad money supply essentially represents the denominator by which we measure everything, so periods when the money supply rises faster than normal tend to mean prices of other things rise as well.

Could we see growing social unrest as a result of this rapid rise in inequality, both in the West and in the developing world?

In the West, I think social unrest will remain elevated and may even increase unless structural changes occur.

The dollar depreciation may be a positive catalyst for developing countries for the next few years. This is because the dollar depreciation relieves US debt and has potentially positive cycle to fluid. If the dollar depreciation is not born during the rate of interest, the confusion in the developing market is expected. However, overall, it may be a little more favorable to the growth market economy three to five years later.

➡ Camara Harris has recently talked about crypto and promised to support the industry. What do you think about Camara's promise? Do you think the birth of President Camara is good for encryption?

Camara Harris sketch

I think the Harris administration may be slightly better for the industry than the Biden administration, but it has not yet been decided.

As mentioned earlier, there are not many votes against Harris, but there are voters who agree with Harris's policy.

I don't think the Trump administration will probably be much better for encryption, but the next administration is good for encryption privacy.

Do you have any thoughts about Mr. Trump's votes from Crypto enthusiasts and starting New World Liberty Financial Token?

Given that accepting this industry can get more votes and donations, it makes sense to accept this industry more than before. It is a clear differentiation factor for them, like a lo w-flying fruit.

➡ What do you think SEC supported Bitcoin Options? How does this affect the investment market? Did this news change the investment pla n-LIAM'S QUESTION

Bitcoin options already exist in other places, which can be introduced on various traditional exchanges. It should be useful for liquidity.

I think that black rock is the main profit in the sense that it has the most liquid ETF and purchases the most liquid options among the ETFs to support the network effect. Options have a variety of rights exercise prices and maturity dates, making it difficult to increase fluidity as a whole. ETFs that can build a highly fluid optional market will be integrated for a long time.

"I am a supporter of Bitcoin and Stable Coin as a tool for economic freedom and [...] tool.

➡ What was the biggest challenge faced while writing "Broken Money"? What is the possibility of the second edition immediately?

Lin Alden's Broken Money is a mus t-read.

The challenge was the size of the scale of the project. Including the references, it exceeded 500 pages, and it was the longest book on this theme.

There was no shortage of hig h-quality short stories about this theme, but comprehensive books were needed by many people, and the paper was consequently correct.

And for me, this project was a par t-time project that was held in a short period of one year.

Even if the second edition of the book appears, it is usually a few years after publishing. Personally, I will wait more than 5 years before considering the second edition.

➡ Some people describe you as a "bitcoin evangelist" because your book has a lot of space on bitcoin. Can they say their evaluation is correct?

In the sense that having bitcoin is a good thing to grow, it may be partially correct. I generally use the word advocate (supporter), not evangelist (evangelist). But that is the result of studying bitcoin for many years. My previous job was more neutral to this theme, but over time, I became more positive.

I would be close to a pure analyst with a scenario that did not have a moral view of assets and just predicted the price change. But, for example, I am a supporter of the human rights Foundation and other groups supporting economic freedom, and as a tool, I use bitcoin and stable coins, so I go a step further from analysts. It can be said.

However, I try to find out investment analysis and ethical analysis. In other words, when you express your thoughts about the next 12 to 18 months, or invest in a venture capital, you are an analyst. However, I am a defender because I think it is good for ordinary people to know that it is possible to make decent legal backing in terms of disclosure of teaching materials. < SPAN> ➡️ What was the biggest challenge faced while writing "Broken Money"? What is the possibility of the second edition immediately?

Lin Alden's Broken Money is a mus t-read.

The challenge was the size of the scale of the project. Including the references, it exceeded 500 pages, and it was the longest book on this theme.

There was no shortage of hig h-quality short stories about this theme, but comprehensive books were needed by many people, and the paper was consequently correct.

And for me, this project was a par t-time project that was held in a short period of one year.

Even if the second edition of the book appears, it is usually a few years after publishing. Personally, I will wait more than 5 years before considering the second edition.

➡ Some people describe you as a "bitcoin evangelist" because your book has a lot of space on bitcoin. Can they say their evaluation is correct?

My bases within the year have two more 25bps interest rate, but may vary depending on future data.

I would be close to a pure analyst with a scenario that did not have a moral view of assets and just predicted the price change. But, for example, I am a supporter of the human rights Foundation and other groups supporting economic freedom, and as a tool, I use bitcoin and stable coins, so I go a step further from analysts. It can be said.

However, I try to find out investment analysis and ethical analysis. In other words, when you express your thoughts about the next 12 to 18 months, or invest in a venture capital, you are an analyst. However, I am a defender because I think it is good for ordinary people to know that it is possible to make decent legal backing in terms of disclosure of teaching materials. ➡ What was the biggest challenge faced while writing "Broken Money"? What is the possibility of the second edition immediately?

Lin Alden's Broken Money is a mus t-read.

1. The challenge was the size of the scale of the project. Including the references, it exceeded 500 pages, and it was the longest book on this theme.
2. There was no shortage of hig h-quality short stories about this theme, but comprehensive books were needed by many people, and the paper was consequently correct.
3. And for me, this project was a par t-time project that was held in a short period of one year.
4. Even if the second edition of the book appears, it is usually a few years after publishing. Personally, I will wait more than 5 years before considering the second edition.